A summary of four scenarios for future research strategies
The Mobility Foresight project is the 2010 follow up on earlier scenario process works with the aim to create a platform for discussion and a setting for the subsequent strategy work intended for the Wireless@KTH research department and also for the wider KTH research community.
Four scenarios were created based on two dividing issues concerning market landscape and technology development ideals. The first was whether new technology will be developed primarily with a human centric design (as today) or if the new growth in machine to machine based communication will lead to a new machine centric design paradigm?
The other dividing factor concerned the global market structure; will it be fragmented and chaotic (high complexity) by regulators and new technology opportunities, or will it be more or less similar (low complexity) all over the globe?
These two dimensions create a four-squared table with four different scenarios:
The Flash Mob – combines a high complexity of the market structure with a human centric design ideal.
The Harmonious Empire - combines a low complexity of the market structure with a human centric design ideal.
The Techno-clan - combines a high complexity market structure with a machine centric design.
The Red Queen’s army - combines a low complexity market structure with a machine centric design.
Important trends and different outcomes
The four scenarios outline potential future events and developments, and the different development paths that eventually will take us there. In combination they point to a number of important trends that should be monitored closely in the coming years. It seems as if the high complexity of the market structure yields more of innovation and development while the low complexity promotes a more controlled development with much more attention to productivity and economic efficiency. The shift from human centric design to machine centric design could also mean that a number of today’s important actors in the market may lose some ground to newcomers more adapted to the different requirements required by machine communication.
More about our Research
IN BRIEF The main research focus of Wireless@KTH is to solve key technical problems in systems in Infrastructure for Mobile Services and Systems for Mobile Service of tomorrow. Not only physical constraints (i.e. physics of radio propagation, capacity limitations in networks etc) are considered in our research In designing future systems for mobile service, end-user and service provider demands, constraints and business logic also have to be modeled and considered to make an adequate and sustainable technical design.